Rochester’s crime decline 

The dramatic turnaround in Rochester crime rates continued in the first half of 2024. 

Incidents are down across every key category of violent and property crime so far this year. In some categories, rates have fallen to levels not seen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Most striking is the stunning reversal in the number of motor vehicle thefts, which last year soared far higher than the previous record. In the first six months of this year, 712 motor vehicle thefts were reported, compared with 2,374 in the same period a year ago—a 70 percent decline. 

Homicides, which surged to a record high in 2021, fell 25 percent through June 30, marking the third straight first-half decline. The total of 18 homicides is only one more than the number in the first six months of 2019, the last pre-COVID year. 

Rochester’s crime downturn aligns with the national trend. First-quarter statistics released by the FBI show declines in violent and property crimes across the U.S., while an AH Datalytics dashboard tracking year-to-date homicide rates says they are down 17 percent nationwide.

Perceptions of criminal activity have been slower to change, however. In a 2023 Gallup poll, 77 percent of all respondents believed that crime was increasing in the U.S. This continues a streak that began in 2020 when more than 70 percent of respondents gave that answer.

Americans are far less likely to view their own neighborhood as dangerous, though. Only 17 percent in the 2023 poll rated the area where they live as having a “very serious” or “extremely serious” crime problem.

Tide of violence recedes

Incidents of violent crime, which include homicides, aggravated assaults, and robberies, were trending downward before spiking midyear in 2020. The pandemic’s arrival that spring and fallout over Daniel Prude’s death likely contributed to a record high homicide rate in 2021.

“Policing plays a significant role in reducing violence, and some of the most effective violence reduction strategies involve police, but crime reduction is also predicated on how police treat the community members they serve. Aggressive police practices and/or police misconduct undermine public trust, tear at the social fabric, and eventually lead to more crime,” wrote Irshad Altheimer, lead professor of the RIT Center for Public Safety Initiatives, in the recently updated State of Black Rochester. “Rochester witnessed this firsthand with the death of Daniel Prude.”

Since peaking in 2021, violent crime incidents combined have fallen in each subsequent year. In addition to the decline in homicides, robberies dropped in the first half of 2024 to 185 from 207 in the same period last year and 263 in 2022. Aggravated assaults declined to 387 from 458.

Violent crime this year also has been more diffuse citywide. Typical hotspots in the Clinton, Genesee and Lake patrol sections have been cooler.

The number of firearm-crime victims also is down compared to recent years. Through June, there were 80 non-fatal and 16 fatal victims of shootings, compared with 107 and 17 last year. (The midyear high mark for non-fatal victims is 179 in 2021; for fatal victims, it is 28 in 2022.)

Black males in the 25-to-44 age range comprised the highest proportion of both fatal and non-fatal shooting victims (38.5 percent) so far this year. But Altheimer cautions against misinterpreting such statistics.

“Although both homicides and gun violence disproportionately involve Black victims, the proportion of both victims and offenders relative to the overall Black population is very small,” he noted in his essay. “Further, even in the most challenged neighborhoods in Rochester, violence is disproportionately concentrated in a few street segments—such as the area between the intersection of Jefferson and Bartlett and the intersection of Jefferson and Frost.”

If the first-half trend holds throughout the rest of the year, it would result in roughly 100 fewer total shootings compared to 2023. Some typically high-incident months remain, but the start of the second half was encouraging: July 4th weekend celebrations in 2023 were marred by six shootings with seven injured; no such incidents occurred with this year’s celebrations.

Property crime decline

Reported incidents of property crime, a category that includes burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft, also fell in the first six months of 2024. Other than the sharp spike in motor vehicle thefts last year, which in some months topped larceny incidents, this category has been falling fairly steadily since 2011.

Reports of property crime continued to be highest in Rochester’s southeast quadrant, stretching east from the Genesee River, covering downtown, the East End and Park Avenue, as well as southern neighborhoods like the South Wedge and Mount Hope. 

The 712 motor vehicle thefts in the first half of 2024 remain elevated when compared to the historical average of 311. However, this year’s number is a far cry from last year’s midyear mark of 2,374. 

The reason for this decline is not immediately apparent but free security software updates offered by Hyundai, one of the manufacturers targeted by this spike, could be one factor. Similarly, the fleeting nature of internet fads, which drove the “Kia Challenge Trend,” where young people would break into and joyride cars, might help explain the turnaround.

In February, courts gave preliminary approval to a voluntary $145 million settlement in a legal action brought against Hyundai and Kia that included the city of Rochester. Individuals who had their cars stolen or broken into could receive money from that settlement. The final ruling on the matter is slated to be made this month.

Albany’s role

Mayor Malik Evans believes much of the city’s progress in reducing crime is thanks to state support, specifically from the Gun Involved Violence Elimination grant from the Department of Criminal Justice Services.

Statewide, GIVE supports 28 police departments in 21 counties with equipment, overtime, personnel, comprehensive training and technical assistance. In Monroe County, the Greece Police Department also receives GIVE grant funding. This is the 11th year the Rochester Police Department has received a GIVE award. 

The $3.2 million proposal included in the city’s 2024-25 budget represents the slightest of increases compared to last year: $500.

“We advocated very hard for this, it’s something that we went to the mat on. We have gotten one of the largest amounts (statewide),” he said at a recent City Council meeting.

Roughly two-thirds of the total grant ($2.08 million) will go to salaries and fringe benefits for eight investigators and two sergeants specifically focused on non-fatal shootings.

Other spending areas include officer overtime for cases with gun offenders and group violence intervention as well as employing a GIVE director and analysts through RIT’s Center for Public Safety Initiatives.

“For those who ask, ‘Hey, is it working?’, I think it’s important for the numbers to show how effective GIVE has been for us in terms of improving our gun violence numbers,” Evans said at the recent City Council meeting.“We’ve still got a long way to go, but this program has been very helpful to us over the last couple of years.”

Altheimer says focused interventions for enforcement of individuals at a high-risk of engaging in violence as well as lowering poverty rates and increasing opportunity must be a part of any anti-violence plan in order to be effective. 

“Violence reduction efforts that alienate entire communities should be rejected—even if they result in some reductions in crime,” wrote Altheimer.

Looking ahead

The RPD’s anti-violence plan for the summer incorporates using its public safety partners at the Monroe County Sheriff’s Department, State Police, U.S. Marshall’s Task Force, and the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. Deputy Chief Keith Stith says it also entails engagement with the community and the mayor’s Office of Violence Prevention, calling the overall plan “a holistic approach.”

In addition, the RPD plans to use hotspot policing, placing greater numbers of law enforcement where violent incidents have repeatedly occurred.

“That’s not a secret, that’s something the community will see. We may have a patrol unit, for instance, parked in an area of a hotspot for 10 to 12 minutes, based on the evidence that reduces crimes,” Stith explains in a video updating the community on the plan.

“More importantly for the community, these strategies do not promote over-policing or racial profiling,” he adds. “There are chronic gun offenders, for example, who do drive our gang violence in the area. And we know who these individuals are.”

City Councilmember Willie Lightfoot credits the drop in violent crime to the array of stakeholders involved in the anti-violence effort. These organizations range from the mayor’s office to community groups like Pathways to Peace, and the RPD itself, particularly in its efforts at seizing illegal guns.

“The city government has shifted in the last few years, to where now we’re doing a lot of work in the space of human services. I believe that now, it’s paying dividends,” says Lightfoot, who chairs the public safety committee and runs the Roc Against Gun Violence Coalition.

However, echoing comments by many when discussing public safety, Lightfoot says the work is far from over.

“One homicide is one homicide too many,” he says. “One shooting is one shooting too many. We will never be excited about the violence crime rate going down. We will only be excited when it stops.”

Jacob Schermerhorn is a Rochester Beacon contributing writer and data journalist. The Beacon welcomes comments and letters from readers who adhere to our comment policy including use of their full, real name. Submissions to the Letters page should be sent to [email protected].