If you want to buy a house in the Rochester area, better be quick on your feet. Houses for sale here are still selling faster than in any other large metro nationwide.
In July, the median time from listing to sale was 21 days, Realtor.com’s monthly housing market trends report shows. That compares with 15 days a year earlier and 17 days in July 2022—when metropolitan Rochester also ranked No. 1 in median days on the market among the 50 largest metros.
With time on the market edging up here, the gap between Rochester and other metros has narrowed. The second-ranked metro—Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.—trailed Rochester by only one day. Tied for third at 26 days were Buffalo-Cheektowaga and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. Median days on the market fell by 13 in Buffalo—the biggest year-over-year drop nationwide.
In 2022 and 2023, the gap between Rochester and the metro with the next fewest days on the market was 10 and six days, respectively.
Among all metros analyzed by Realtor.com, time on the market averaged 50 days, up five days compared with a year earlier and the most for a July since 2020.
Lack of supply remains the biggest reason why homes here move off the market so rapidly compared to other large metros. In July, the number of active listings in the Rochester region was up 8.2 percent year over year; that increase was fifth smallest among the 50 metros, as was its new-listing count. Nationally, the number of homes actively for sale was up 36.6 percent—making July the ninth month in a row with an increase and the highest post-pandemic count. Yet, Realtor.com noted, “while inventory this July is much improved compared with the previous three years, it is still down 30.6 percent compared with typical 2017 to 2019 levels.”
“The Rochester real estate market continues to experience a critical shortage of homes available for sale,” said Mike O’Connor, Greater Rochester Association of Realtors president, when GRAR released its second-quarter report in mid-July. “While the slight increase in new listings we have seen so far this year is welcome, it doesn’t even begin to satisfy the demand for housing. Across our region, there are buyers who have been looking for homes for years, but with no success.”
The Rochester area’s median listing price in July was $299,900, up 15.6 percent compared with a year earlier. Nationally, the median listing price was $439,950, essentially unchanged year over year. Of the 50 large metros Realtor.com includes in its monthly report, Rochester had the largest percentage increase in median listing price. Only four metros had lower median listing prices: Pittsburgh, $250,000; Cleveland, $272,450; Detroit, $279,950; and Buffalo, $289,900.
Another measure of housing demand: the share of homes for sale labeled price reduced. In July, Rochester’s number was 4.2 percent—again, smallest among the top 50 metros. Hartford was next at 7.6 percent, followed by Buffalo at 8.3 percent. The average of all markets was 18.9 percent. That’s a two-year high and also is higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Realtor.com says its July data shows the U.S. housing market “cooled considerably” with the end of the peak buying season and growing expectations for mortgage rate reductions.
In one key respect, the Rochester market is like the other 49 large metros nationwide: All have seen striking price growth compared with pre-pandemic levels. Compared with July 2019, Rochester’s median listing price was up 30.7 percent, in the middle of the pack. (The Providence, R.I., metro was No. 1, at 54.8 percent, while San Francisco brought up the rear, at 5.1 percent.) On a square-foot basis, Rochester prices have grown 43.6 percent—a sizable increase, but nothing like New York City’s top-ranked 78.3 percent.
Looking ahead, there are indications that median days on the market might continue to edge higher. Even with declining mortgage rates due to a slowing economy, total U.S. home sales through December are expected to be lower than previously forecast, housing market analysts with the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group say. Indeed, the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index continues to show a near-record low share of respondents indicating it’s a “good time to buy” a home.
In 2025, however, the ESR Group expects “typical incomes to start rising faster than house price appreciation next year.” Combined with a projected further gradual reduction in mortgage rates, “we expect a moderate improvement in affordability next year to eventually reach a point where additional homebuyers come off the sidelines.”
Paul Ericson is Rochester Beacon executive editor. The Beacon welcomes comments and letters from readers who adhere to our comment policy including use of their full, real name. Submissions to the Letters page should be sent to [email protected].
An inquiry question for Paul:
Given the short pace of sales and the region,s price ranking nationally, what is the portion of sales going to non home owners like mutual Funds, REITs and other speculative buyers? With a 15+ per cent increase in price, the market has to be attractive to speculative institutional buyers.
A good question, Bob. I am not aware of a ready source of information that would provide an answer; it might require examining each transaction to determine the buyer. However, the nationwide data suggest speculative buyers have a number of markets to choose from–as I note in the article, compared with July 2019, the increase in Rochester’s median listing price ranks only in the middle of the top 50 metros.
It is difficult to find precise numbers for investor-owned homes in Monroe County, NY, specifically from real estate investment trusts (REITs), private equity groups, and individual investors. However, based on national and regional trends, it is estimated that 24% of single-family homes in the U.S. were purchased by investors, including private equity firms, in recent years. Private equity has expanded its presence in housing markets, especially since the 2008 financial crisis. The trend is mirrored in several counties where large institutional investors target affordable housing markets, including areas similar to Monroe County.