Thomas Sowell once opined that “much of the history of the Western world over the last three decades has involved replacing what worked with what sounded good.” I think about that quote each election season, as promises about “the future” and how “our best days are ahead of us” dominate the airwaves.
Today’s political journalism primarily entails rebroadcasting candidate tweets rather than actual investigative work. Thirty-second commercials are hardly adequate to fully convey detailed candidate issue positions (although “my opponent is evil” does fit nicely into a 30-second spot). How can voters get past the political ads to figure out which candidates are being straight with us and offering substantive policy proposals?
You don’t need a political science degree. But you do need:
- A willingness to go beyond the cable news talking heads to seek out hard data from independent, objective sources. More on that below.
- Enough intellectual honesty to acknowledge that most issues aren’t as simple as candidates want you to believe. They tell you the good but leave out the bad and the ugly.
- An understanding of the landscape, such as the challenges imposed by America’s aging demographics (just 2.7 active workers per retiree today versus 3.3 three decades ago) or our structural budgetary imbalances.
The best way to start is to simplify the math. It’s hard to mentally process billions and trillions. But a trillion dollars is roughly $3,000 for every American. Assessing what a particular spending proposal will cost you personally provides context. A $1.8 trillion deficit? Multiply $3,000 by 1.8: That’s $5,400 of new borrowing for each of us. Our $35 trillion national debt? That’s 3,000 times 35, or $105,000 per person. Now the numbers become relatable.
Aside from simplifying the math, how can the average voter separate political fact from fiction? If you are willing to put in the time, there are many useful, and objective, information sources available. Here are some links:
Income taxes: The IRS publishes the quarterly SOI Bulletin (Statistics of Income). It provides a ton of detail about income tax collections broken down by source (wages versus investment income) and taxes paid by people at each income level. Want to know who is and isn’t paying “their fair share”? The SOI Bulletin will tell you. Spoiler alert: The IRS numbers are very different from what you hear in political speeches.
Social Security: While it’s voluminous, the annual Social Security Trustees Report provides a myriad of information about the solvency of both the Social Security and Disability Insurance systems. The charts, tables and graphs contain 90 percent of what you need to know without having to wade through the dense text. The Social Security Administration has also published a summary of various proposals to shore up the Social Security Trust Fund and the impact each proposal will have on Social Security’s funding status. The Congressional Budget Office’s “2024 Long Term Projections for Social Security,” which you can access here, provides a more condensed analysis of the Social Security math.
Federal spending and revenue: The CBO’s “Monthly Budget Review” allows you to track federal revenue, expenditure and deficit totals, as well as line items, throughout the year. If you’re interested, the CBO maintains an email list for its monthly updates. Knowing these numbers provides context when candidates try to one-up each other with free-stuff proposals.
Take, for example, something both 2024 presidential candidates favor: making tip income tax-exempt. Not only is the idea fiscally irresponsible given our $1.8 trillion deficit, it also fails the fairness test. Why should cooks sweating away in a restaurant kitchen or the truck driver who delivers food to the restaurant loading dock pay income tax on their wages while the wait staff enjoys tax-free compensation? The idea is both fiscally indefensible and socially inequitable.
Demographics: According to the Census Bureau, in 1970, the median age of Americans was 28 years. Today, it’s 39. So, for the last half-century, Americans have collectively aged nearly a week every month. Older people require more government-funded health care, thereby exacerbating the deficit. As retirees leave the workforce, there are fewer people working to support each retiree. It’s a huge fiscal challenge, one neither political party’s candidate seems willing to publicly acknowledge. Their refusal to address the problem won’t make it go away.
Locally, state Health Department data shows that more Monroe County residents now die each year than are born here. You don’t need to be a trained demographer to recognize that that’s a serious problem! But have you ever heard a state Senate, a state Assembly or a Monroe County Legislature candidate talk about that reality and what we should be doing about it? Shouldn’t that be a prime campaign issue?
The economy: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ “FRED” website provides a myriad of customizable economic statistics and graphics. The U.S. Treasury publishes a “Debt to the Penny” daily running total of both publicly held and trust fund U.S. Treasury debt. If you want to know how much of that federal debt is owed to foreigners, you can find out here. And, every Thursday afternoon, the Fed publishes its weekly balance sheet.
Gaza: Reading the Hamas 2017 Statement of Principles and/or the Hamas Charter provides valuable context around the turmoil in Gaza and challenges to the peace process. Understanding someone’s thought process helps to understand their actions.
Defense: The Department of Defense budget breaks down spending by military branch and function (personnel, maintenance, procurement, etc.). It also includes procurement costs by weapons systems and myriad other details such as the number and type of each navy ship and combat aircraft. The CBO also does some military procurement analysis, such as this review of the Navy’s 2024 Shipbuilding Plan.
Education: The National Assessment of Educational Progress website provides a wealth of information about both national and state-level student performance. The SAT Suite of Assessments is also a useful tool. In terms of international comparisons, the OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) is the accepted benchmark. None of it makes for encouraging reading.
Inflation: The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index release monthly. It shows how much weight is given to every consumption category and how large the monthly price change was for each. If you want to track the CPI over time, you can do so from 1913 to the present here.
Abortion: The state Health Department publishes 25 years of abortion statistics on its website, with 2021 being the most recent year available. The site provides raw data broken down by county, ethnicity and age of the mother. In 2021, 24 percent of all Monroe County pregnancies were aborted compared to 21 percent statewide.
Student loans: Both current and historical student loan balance information is available here.
America has no shortage of serious challenges, many of them structural. Yet instead of solutions, candidates reflexively promise more free stuff that someone else will allegedly pay for.
No candidate wants to acknowledge that Social Security has been paying out more than it has been taking in from FICA taxes since 2010 and that some combination of higher payroll taxes, lower benefits or an older retirement age will be required to solve the problem. See the summary referenced above to assess the impact of these various alternatives. Candidates won’t talk about it because if they do, their opponent will immediately run television ads claiming they “want to take your hard-earned Social Security away from you.” Who wants to step into that trap?
The only solution is an educated electorate that knows the numbers and demands definitive answers to difficult questions. Only then will hard political decisions be made, hopefully before things deteriorate to crisis levels.
You can’t fix a problem without first acknowledging that it exists. That’s our job as voters. We have a responsibility to stay informed, to understand the numbers and the background context around the issues. Then we need to support those candidates who are willing to be straight with the American people, the ones who deal in fact rather than fiction. The ones who tell us not only the good, but also the bad and the ugly.
We need to make it clear to political candidates that we won’t shoot the messenger who calls out challenges without sugarcoating them. And that these are precisely the candidates we’ll show up to vote for.
While this list doesn’t pretend to cover every political topic, there are non-partisan information sources available for most of the major issues. Seek them out for the issues that matter to you. Knowing the numbers lets you separate political fact from fiction.
Geoff Rosenberger is retired co-founder of Clover Capital Management Inc.
The Beacon welcomes comments and letters from readers who adhere to our comment policy including use of their full, real name. Submissions to the Letters page should be sent to [email protected].
Gary; Let me guess you get some of your information from NPR, the Democrat & Chronicle, the Rochester Beacon, New York Times, Associated Press, USATODAY and CNN. So do I. Obviously, I read and listen to more conservative media outlets. That gives me a good overall prospective on what’s going on. I hope we’re getting Trump Vance who can begin to stop the destruction of our Republic.
John, you are partially correct. But you can strike the NYT, and I agree NPR is not what it used to be. I also subscribe to the BBC, Reuters, and the CBC, and listen to POTUS and C-Span on Sirius as they are non-partisan. I only watch CNN when they have Republican counter points on (Abby Phillips for example, although that can be imperfect). I avoid both FOX and MSNBC for obvious reasons. These give me a good overall perspective and I try to fact check them all, and watch for bias. I cringe at the use of “pregnant people” and question the term gender affirming care. They are clearly biased, only women get pregnant and an unbiased phrase is sexual reassignment treatments, that simply states what it is. Tell me what it is and I’ll decide. After all that’s come out I’m not convinced the Democrats are destroying the Republic. Do they have policies I disagree with? Yes. But destroying the Republic? Not convinced.
Gary; I feel like Dorothy, the Tin Man, the Lion and Scare Crow in the Wizard of Oz. When they did what the Wizard asked of them he wasn’t satisfied. I gave you what you asked for and you weren’t satisfied. You get much of your information from partisan sources which are to numerous to name. Besides, Trump has the courage to take on the corrupt government media complex, survive assassination attempts, lawfare, election interference, and out the Biden crime family, the invasion of millions of illegal aliens, Biden Harris failed foreign, economic, crime and energy policies, etc. Their actions are the real threat to Democracy. Trump-Vance is the answer in 2024.
John, but friend you don’t know where I get my information. I am aware that many outlets have agendas and I act accordingly. All that you pointed out, policy differences, are civilly arguable. Knowingly inciting discord, violence, and riots are not. Be careful what you wish for.
Gary; I’m glad you’re learning from me. The problem is you don’t have enough curiosity to educate yourself on both sides of important issues. By the way, Harris did lie or misspoke 25 times according to The Federalist on September 11, 2024.
John, I read the article in The Federalist. But let’s be honest, they are as partisan as it comes. The article claims Harris will “take people’s guns away”. That’s clearly a false statement. And it was Ronald Reagan who enabled the first assault weapons ban, he was hardly a Marxist. Just as inaccurate is Harris’s claim JD Vance endorsed Project 2025. Which interestingly enough was a fact check by CNN and PBS. I concede that Harris, as all people do, has gotten things wrong, misspoke, made incorrect judgements, and spun things. Clearly, she rushed to judgement on some issues and tried to gloss over others. But even as The Federalist article states they do not come close to “Trump’s whoppers”. And as we see Trump’s comments have had far more negative consequences. I am curious, I am willing to see the merit and be skeptical of any argument or claim made by either side.
I really appreciate the Rochester Beacon because it allows me to educate a readership who over by 80% doesn’t support Trump. As an example, a recent fact check on Harris showed that she lied or misspoke 25 times during the recent debate. However, the ABC moderators didn’t interrupt her like they did to Trump. A recent poll concluded that ABC, CBS & NBC have well over 80% negative coverage on Trump and well over 80% positive coverage on Harris. The media certainly is the real threat to Democracy.
John, please what is the source of the fact check of Harris you mentioned? A critical difference in the moderators decision to correct is that Trump made clearly false statements he has repeated and he had reason to know were false. For example, he has repeatedly stated that there are states that allow infanticide, and that Haitians eat people’s pets. Both of these he had stated prior to the debate even though he had been informed neither is true. This is very different than misspeaking, getting a fact wrong, or spinning a perspective. Perhaps these news organizations have an 80% negative coverage of Trump because 80% of what he says are known lies, intentionally contentious, pessimistic or outlandish. (Again please cite the poll). Thanks.
A vast majority of the media has piled on Trump because of his humorous but true characterization of them as “fake news”. While they pile on Trump the media covered up the Harris Biden policy of an open border 8 million unvetted illegal aliens, Biden’s payments from Communist China, Biden’s dementia, the Afghanistan debacle, enriching Iran, Harris and.Waltz supporting violence of BLM/antifa, lawfare, laptop, election irregularities, yada, yada, yada, The media continues to be the real threat to Democracy.
And yet how did we learn of these things? From the media. What’s incumbent upon us is to check our sources, watching or listening to only partisan outlets is on us. For instance where do misleading ideas such as “open borders”, or that Harris and Walz supported violence, or that there were concerning election irregularities of come from. They are clearly false, but they were pushed by agenda driven media. And the agenda driven media from the other side isn’t immune from this behavior. The media doesn’t vote, we do, if we let them mislead us, or don’t call out such obvious lies such as states allowing infanticide, then shame on us. The issue with Trump is that his statements aren’t simply spin, making the most of a point, or humorous, they are absurd and boldfaced lies. Therein lies the difference.
The media may not be all to blame. When we hear that immigrants are eating your cats, crime is up, the election was stolen, they’re killing babies after birth, and now one of his top advisers is a 9/11 Inside Job proponent perhaps the candidate himself is the issue. It’s one thing to spin, or be selective, they all do that. Known lies are a different matter. Thanks for the links, but even economists may disagree on what the numbers mean, after all economics is a social science, not a hard science.
Geoff has long been a great contributor for solutions to problems in our country including running for Congress. The biggest road block to getting the information out to the public is the media. The media deseminates daily misinformation and disinformation which is the real threat to our Republic.
GEOFF, thanks for the links to selected National numbers. A Workforce Participation Rate link would be a welcome addition. Perplexity AI can readers find it and other relevant info.
VOTERS, please vote! Looking at the official Washington, DC numbers is unnecessary to good citizenship or a valid opinion. Observe that this list does not include a link to the most critical information, our LOCAL government spending. Would you like to know how much you are paying to support the many aliens illegally present here at the invitation of our current government leaders?
Mostly we all should just stick to what we know is true: Are you better off under the current administration? If yes, vote for the incumbents. If no, follow the sage advice to “throw the bums out”.
Sage Advice Dr. Anstadt, but here is a genuine challenge locally. The honorable opposition is that the Republicans do not have much presence. Unless you are a member of the local Democratic party, you don’t have much input as to who the candidates on the ticket in the fall will be. I find the amount I am taxed to support the failing RCSD untenable. I even tried to run for the school board to bring the taxpayer’s voice to the table, and I couldn’t make any headway. In the past, I’ve frequently spoken to City Council, to no avail. Please suggest a viable strategy to introduce a new set of “bum’s.”
Agreed, but there is one question that hard facts may not answer for us, what kind of people do we want to be? Values and character can count for more than numbers tell us.
Politicians are unique beings. They can speak out of both sides of their mouth. Once in office it takes an act of God to get them out. Look around and see how long some of the political types have hung on to their positions. You say, well you can vote them out. The party line vote usually keeps them in, which is a Party issue and under their control. That, by the way, goes for both Democrats and Republicans. It’s a club of sorts and we are to blame for not removing them. The education, the RCSD has been a disaster for decades. No politician will tackle that problem because, it’s too damn hard. Or, I like this one, it aint my job. Make it your job and finally address the number one issue in Rochester, NY, EDUCATION. Once the education system has been addressed, all the other problems from crime to drugs to teenage pregnancy to generational poverty will be dramatically reduced. Living wage jobs will be gained and people can live where they want. Bring back VOCATIONAL EDUCATION. Colleges make promises they can’t keep. they are businesses first and educate second. You can do this Rochester, but you got to step up. Semper Fi.
I’m grateful for the information and the links. I will look at them when I have a block of time. On the issue of Social Security (I’ll admit I have not yet gone to the links), Al Gore kept talking about the “lockbox.” I’m curious about how much Congress has “borrowed” from the trust fund over the past two or three decades, how much they are paying back, and at what interest rate.
Even if politicians looked at all the data sources identified, would they make informed decisions based on data rather than relying on staff, lobbyists, or their legislative party leaders? More importantly, if they engage more thoroughly with citizens and thoughtfully explain why workers need to pay more, they would likely get the support they need.
I’m also wondering about our trade imbalance. How many Americans know how much money we owe to China and how much we buy from overseas sources?
Sadly, if citizens vote at all, they do so emotionally. “Do I like how someone running for office tells me what I want to hear?” Or, “What’s in it for me if I vote for a given candidate?” What percentage of voters are “low information” voters?
For many years, I’ve wished that every candidate for president would list the likely names of cabinet officials because no one person does the president’s job alone. They rely on advisors and Cabinet members who are subject matter experts. Those choices will be vital to any administration’s success.
Another challenge is our “party” system, in which voters align themselves with general values and hope that party leaders do their due diligence and promote candidates who share these generalized values.
Once someone is in office, they have the power of incumbency, and unless they violate the law and are caught and prosecuted for a crime, they generally stay in office as long as they like, unless there are term limits.
Help me out and let me know how I prioritize how my representative votes on all issues they need to act on and how I can influence their decision-making on individual budget items beyond what I already do by writing them letters on issues that concern me and then get tabulated by a staffer as one of hundreds of contacts?
Ultimately, it is usually a binary choice between two less-than-ideal candidates.
The Social Security Trust Fund information you are looking for can be found in Table VI.A1 on pages 162 to 164 of the Appendix to the Social Security Trustees Report which is linked above in this article. As of 12/31/23, the OASI (Old Age & Survivors Insurance) Trust Fund (i.e. Social Security) had $2.64 trillion in assets. In 2023, FICA payroll tax collections were $1,054 billion and Social Security paid benefits of $1,227 billion. It also collected $63 billion in interest on the Trust fund IOU’s that represents loans to the Federal Government. Since the Treasury is running massive budget deficits, it borrowed that $63 billion in the bond market to make the payment to the SS Trust Fund. The Trust Fund balance peaked in 2017 at $2,820 billion, so on the surface it doesn’t appear to have declined by all that much. The problem is the wave of Baby Boomer retirements. Benefit payments were only $672 billion in 2013 versus $1,227 last year. So, in the decade between 2013 and 2023, annual benefit payments increased by 82% or $555 billion. $555 billion translates to roughly $1,600 for every American citizen — $6,400 for a family of four. That’s how much additional tax revenue the federal government needs to raise each year just to fund the last decade’s increase in Social Security benefits.
As for the trade imbalance, you can find out how much we owe to China by following the link provided in “The Economy” section of this article. It tells you how much of our federal debt is owed to each of the major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury notes, bonds and bills.
while not complete, this is an excellent guide to making a choice.