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While losing to Donald Trump and the Republican Party in battles for the White House and U.S. Senate, Democrats dominated locally on Tuesday, with all state-level incumbents winning reelection.
Unofficial results from the Monroe County Board of Elections reveal several trends in overall voter turnout, many reflective of state-level redistricting that went into effect in 2023, making this the first election under these new boundary lines.
Countywide, the 350,776 ballots cast this year were 30,000 (or 7.9 percent) fewer than the 380,989 in the 2020 presidential election. The 2024 total was just 3,000 votes more than the 347,790 cast in the 2016 election, a comparatively down year for voter participation.
The 205,120 cast this year on the Democratic Party line for president was 8,486 less than 2020’s total of 213,606 votes. However, Vice President Kamala Harris still captured a vote share of 59 percent in Monroe County, compared with Joe Biden’s 59 percent in 2020 and Hillary Clinton’s 54 percent in 2016.
In New York’s 25th Congressional District, there were 11,221 fewer votes cast than the last presidential cycle election (336,877 this year, 348,098 in 2020). However, Rep. Joe Morelle garnered 2,189 more votes and won with a commanding 60 percent vote share.
His challenger, Gregg Sadwick, underperformed the 2020 Republican George Mitris by 3,840 votes (132,358 to 136,198 votes). Morelle and Mitris were also facing Libertarian candidate Kevin Wilson in that race, who secured 5,325 votes, much greater than any third-party candidate this year.
Morelle unsurprisingly received fewer votes in 2022, which, as a midterm election year, typically sees lower voter turnout than elections featuring a presidential race. He still won with 54 percent of the vote against his challenger, former Rochester Police Department chief Devin Singletary.
State Sens. Samra Brouk and Jeremy Cooney saw a notable increase in their vote totals compared to the last presidential election cycle—Brouk especially so, with an increase of 11,645 votes compared to the 2020 election. Cooney’s votes increased by 2,887 compared with four years ago.
This could be in part due to changes in the state Senate districts, affecting both geographic boundaries and number of registered voters. Brouk’s seat, the 55th Senate District, in particular, flipped from being bounded by the town of Naples in the south and Penfield in the north, to instead having lines drawn as far south as Pittsford and as far north as Lake Ontario.
Comparing vote shares to past elections, this year was an improvement for both state Senate candidates. Brouk won 61 percent of the vote, improving over her 57 percent and 59 percent share in 2020 and 2022. Cooney won 58 percent this year, up from 54 percent in 2020 and 55 percent in 2022.
Republican candidates running for those state Senate seats failed to move the needle much for their party. Luis Martinez, who challenged Brouk, ended up with 39 percent of the vote, compared to Len Morrell’s 41 percent in 2022 and Christopher Missick’s 42 percent in 2020.
Jim VanBrederode, who ran against Cooney for the second straight time, won 41 percent of the vote, down from 45 percent in 2022. Michael Barry ran on the Republican line in 2020 and received 44 percent of the vote.
State Assembly races were also likely impacted by redistricting. The 135th Assembly District seat, won by incumbent Jen Lunsford this year, maintained its boundaries over the towns of Penfield, Fairport and East Rochester, but exchanged Webster for Pittsford and Mendon in 2023.
Overall voter turnout was down by 6,828 in the 135th compared to the last presidential cycle election. However, Lunsford increased her votes by 2,166, bucking a trend seen by her other Democratic Assembly members whose vote totals fell this year compared to 2020.
She won the race with 58 percent of the vote, her highest ever, compared to 55 percent and 50 percent in 2022 and 2020, respectively.
The 136th, 137th, and 138th Assembly districts, won by Democrat incumbents Sarah Clark, Demond Meeks, and Harry Bronson, increased their overall votes (by 6,958, 1,338, and 526, respectively) compared with the 2020 election. However, they all also received fewer votes than in that election (down by 770, 5,178, and 1,254).
None of those seats changed much due to redistricting, suggesting there was simply lower turnout this year among Democrats and independents supporting Clark, Meeks, and Bronson.
Each of those candidates proportionally had a greater victory compared to Lunsford, however. They all improved on already strong 2022 showings, with Bronson winning 61 percent of the vote; Clark, 67 percent; and Meeks, 71 percent.
Repeating Republican challengers Orlando Rivera, Marcus Williams, and Tracy DiFlorio’s performances declined in the 136th, 137th, and 138th districts. Even as they both picked up about 3,000 more votes compared to 2022, Rivera only secured 33 percent of the vote, matching his last race, Williams won 28 percent, down by 3 percentage points, and DiFlorio received 39 percent of the vote, down by one point.
Jacob Schermerhorn is a Rochester Beacon contributing writer and data journalist. The Beacon welcomes comments and letters from readers who adhere to our comment policy including use of their full, real name. Submissions to the Letters page should be sent to [email protected].
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Did Democrats repeat their overconfidence in 2016 when we thought Hillary had it in the bag? Or was something else happening? I saw many voters at my polling place, so were there specific LDs where voters stayed away?