Did money matter in the mayoral primary?

More than a month removed from the Democratic mayoral primary, data from the New York State and Monroe County boards of elections has brought the race into sharper focus.

Two things are now clear: historically high spending by candidates and historically low voter turnout in Rochester. 

In 2025, the three candidates—incumbent and winner Mayor Malik Evans, City Council member Mary Lupien, and businessman Shashi Sinha—spent a total of $714,290 on their campaigns.

This represents a dramatic 128 percent increase in spending compared with the last mayoral primary in 2021. It’s the largest Rochester mayoral primary spending total ever in state Board of Elections records, and the largest ever spending by a single candidate ($507,774 by Evans).

This historic amount of spending failed to drive voter turnout, however. According to the most recent unofficial results from the county elections board, a total of 13,557 votes were cast in the June mayoral primary, meaning roughly 20 percent of enrolled Democrats in the city went to the polls. That figure represents a 33 percent drop from 20,444 votes cast in the 2021 primary. 

“Evans had the support of powerful Democrats in the region and outspent his two opponents 2-to-1,” says Timothy Kneeland, a professor in Nazareth University’s History, Politics, and Law Department. “Voters in the city may have felt that Evans was going to win, which decreased the support for and opposition to the incumbent mayor.”

The 2017, 2013 and 2005 primaries were also higher than this year with totals of 20,573, 15,283 and 21,782 votes cast, respectively. (Mayors Robert Duffy and William Johnson Jr. did not face Democratic primaries in 2009 and 2001.)

Lupien commented on the low turnout in a concession message the day after the election, saying the disappointment in this fact should also be met with alarm.

“As democracy crumbles at the national level, we’re seeing it falter locally too,” she said. “We can’t have a functioning democracy if people don’t participate and if our legislative bodies lack the power or will to hold executives accountable.”

Since she did not receive an endorsement from the Working Families Party, Lupien will not appear on the general election ballot in November. With two years remaining in her term on City Council, however, she will remain in city government.

The Working Families Party has endorsed both Evans and Lupien in the past. The party did endorse other candidates facing primaries in Rochester this year, including in City Council and Rochester city school board races. Given the low turnout in the primary, a WFP endorsement could have helped Lupien compete in the general election, Kneeland believes.

In other cities, also running on a third-party line was a strategy for some Democratic candidates.

“In places like Buffalo and New York City, where there was more competition, candidates who feared losing the Democratic primary hedged their bets by also running on third-party lines,” Kneeland says. Among them: Sean Ryan, who won the Democratic mayoral primary in Buffalo, also was endorsed by WFP. And in New York City, Andrew Cuomo qualified to run on the independent ballot line.

“Thus, some primary contests are no longer the all-or-nothing races they once were, which may be undermining turnout,” he adds.

Spending and votes

Evans won this year’s race with 7,601 votes, or 57 percent of the total.

In an election night speech, he said his victory “belongs to the people of Rochester.” 

Added Evans: “Over the last four years, we’ve made real progress together—and I’m grateful for the opportunity to continue building a safer, stronger, more vibrant Rochester.”

According to campaign disclosure records, Evans spent $507,774 since Jan. 1, or $66.80 per vote he received.

The Evans campaign spent the most on advertising, with $135,327 listed with the purpose code of “television ads,” split between Canal Partners Media and RSH Campaigns, two agencies that often work with Democratic candidates. Evans also listed $42,244 for digital ads, and $34,450 for radio.

John Loury, president of local consulting firm Cause + Effect Strategy, credits the Evans campaign for its fundraising efforts. However, he finds the campaign’s total expenditure surprising, given what Evans was able to accomplish in 2021 with less than a third of this year’s spending.

In particular, Loury notes that the amount spent on TV ads could be wasted dollars.

“If you’re doing broadcast TV, there’s a lot of waste because you’re hitting people all over the county or over in Ontario, NY, who are watching 13WHAM news. That wouldn’t necessarily be the strategy I would recommend,” says Loury, who has previously worked on campaigns for politicians including Cheryl Dinolfo and Lovely Warren. 

“Political advertising has come to a one-to-one level of campaigning today, in leveraging digital ads and social media. You can target an individual voter and appeal directly to them now with messaging about issues they care about,” he notes. “Why hit these other areas (with TV broadcast) instead of focusing in on the city?” 

Loury speculates that a deal for such a sizable amount might include digital branding alongside TV, as many broadcast television stations often offer that today.

“I’d say over the last four or five years, there’s been a huge shift. Data now rules the roost,” he says. “With that becoming the norm, broadcast stations needed to pivot and offer services outside just TV.”

It is unclear if Evans’ campaign had such an agreement with RSH Campaigns, although the company’s website does list “creation and placement of television, radio and digital advertisements” in its services. Evans’ campaign did not respond to the Beacon’s request for clarification in this expenditure charge.

In the 2021 primary, Evans challenged the embattled Warren, who was seeking a third term as mayor. Along with felony charges for alleged campaign finance violations, Warren also faced questions about the death of Daniel Prude, a lawsuit filed by former Rochester Police Department chief La’Ron Singletary, and the arrest of her estranged husband as the alleged center of a drug smuggling ring.

Evans’ electoral performance was even stronger that year. He received 13,347 votes, or 66 percent of the total. His spending was lower, however, with $147,478 in listed expenditures at the same point in that election cycle. On a per-vote basis, his spending in that campaign translates to $11.05.

Casting herself as the progressive candidate in this race, Lupien received 4,431 votes or 33 percent of the total count. She listed $89,163 in expenditures in her disclosure records, or $20.12 per vote received.

Her largest single expenditure, $24,596, went for digital advertising through Uplift Campaigns, a media firm for Democratic campaigns and progressive political organizations. The next highest amount, $17,470, was spent on campaign mailers. Unlike Evans, Lupien did not report spending any money on TV ads.

In 2017, Lupien ran in an all-city primary for an at-large City Council seat. She outperformed her vote total this year, receiving 6,749 votes in that election. All available disclosures for that election cycle show a total of $32,518 in spending, or $4.82 per vote.

However, Lupien’s count that year represented only 6 percent of the 102,865 total votes in the race, meaning she ultimately lost. She would go on to win two primary elections for the east district City Council seat in 2019 and 2023 with 2,687 and 2,520 votes, or 58 percent and 56 percent of votes cast.

Sinha finished third in June’s mayoral primary, receiving 1,329 votes, or 9.8 percent of the total. His disclosure records for 2025 show $117,351 in expenditures, or $88.30 per vote received.

Sinha spent the most on campaign consultants, with $52,727 to the Threshold Group, a consulting firm specializing in advertising, fundraising, and public affairs, and three individuals: Nicholas Abbott, Thomas Arida and Zachary Parker.

He also spent $10,346 on digital ads and $10,025 on radio spots. As with Lupien, TV advertising is not listed in Sinha’s disclosures.

Loury also notes the use of firms outside the area by candidates in the primary. RSH and Uplift campaigns have offices in multiple states. Canal Partners is based in Arizona and the Threshold Group is based in New York City.

“That is not the norm for campaigns at the local and county level,” he says. “Historically, there hasn’t been enough dollars spent to get the interest of these larger media or data firms. But when you’re showing a number like $714,000, that’s a lot of money being thrown around for a campaign.”

Election geography

Evans’ performance falls well within the geographic context of the six previous elections he has been in across his 22 years in political office. He generally does relatively well throughout the city and wins without an easily defined stronghold of support.

For example, Evans this year performed best in the Crescent neighborhood districts, earning 70 percent of the vote in north-central District 29, 69 percent in west-central District 28, and 66 percent in southwest District 27.

Eastern election districts, where Lupien has historically registered strong performances, were home to his weakest performances in this race. He earned 44 percent and 45 percent of the vote in districts 23 and 24, which include the Neighborhood of the Arts, Cobbs Hill Park, the South Wedge, and the University of Rochester area.

This is the opposite of the 2021 primary results for Evans. In that election, he lost most of the vote in the Crescent neighborhoods (48, 49, and 44 percent of the vote in districts 29, 28 and 27) to Warren, who historically did best in the 19th Ward and Genesee-Jefferson neighborhoods.

Conversely, he dominated the east in 2021, winning 92 percent and 91 percent of the vote in districts 23 and 24, respectively.

Lupien’s best results this election were in the eastern side of the city. She did not get a majority of votes in any of those districts however. Lupien received 41 percent, 46 percent and 48 percent of the vote in districts 17, 23, and 24, respectively.

She did particularly badly in the north-central and west-central 28th and 29th districts where her vote totals were 15 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

Sinha’s vote share was never higher than 13 percent in any district. He received just shy of 14 percent of the vote in the northwest District 26, which encompasses Charlotte. He did the worst in District 24, where he earned 6 percent of the vote.

Regional trends

Turnout in Democratic mayoral primary races was lackluster statewide this year, which Kneeland calls “a trend, not an anomaly.”

Syracuse’s 19 percent turnout was even lower than the roughly 20 percent of registered voters casting a ballot in Rochester’s mayoral primary. Turnout in Buffalo was estimated at 28 percent by an official with the Erie County Board of Elections. 

“It may also be due to the one-party rule in New York State and our largest cities,” says Kneeland. “Some primary turnout can be fueled by the most active party members seeking to use their vote to select a candidate they believe will beat the opposition in the general election.”

However, he adds, “there are so few Republicans in our largest cities that such a consideration may no longer be a factor in bringing voters to the polls.”

Indeed, voters enrolled in the Democratic party outnumber Republicans by a factor of nearly 7-to-1 in the city of Rochester and 7-to-4 in Erie County.

(It is nearly a 17-to-1 ratio in Onondaga County between Democrats and Republicans. However the county also has a remarkably high number of non-affiliated voters, greater than the number of registered Democrats. This could explain why Ben Walsh, an independent, was elected as mayor in 2017 and 2021. And in 2025, Sharon Owens victory in the Democratic party primary was against a candidate more in line with local establishment Democrats.)

New York City’s mayoral primary saw over 1 million voters, the highest total in over two decades. Kneeland says that turnout rate is still below 30 percent (the Beacon’s estimate, based on unofficial voter data, is closer to 32 percent) and disappointing since the race was “essentially national and featured several candidates.”

“I would love to have the full stats on how many registered Democrats were added between the last official census in February of 2025 and the June primary,” he says. “Democrats have claimed that Zohran Mamdani’s candidacy brought in new, younger voters.”

His political rival Cuomo in recent media appearances has fed that narrative, claiming new Mamdani voters are linked to socialism, left-wing politician Bernie Sanders, and pro-Palestine movements.

Michael Lange, a New York City political analyst, largely agrees that younger voters showed up more in New York City and further speculates that a heat wave during the primary may have kept older, more heat-risk adverse voters from the polls. (Temperatures were forecasted as high as 99 degrees on primary day in New York City and 93 degrees in Rochester.)

In Rochester, early turnout reports indicate that turnout was down for all ages of registered voters. However, those under the age of 44, particularly young voters, had the worst showing. Voters between the ages of 18 and 24 had a turnout of 8.3 percent, the lowest since 2013’s mayoral primary when it was 6.9 percent. 

Jacob Schermerhorn is a Rochester Beacon contributing writer and data journalist.

The Beacon welcomes comments and letters from readers who adhere to our comment policy including use of their full, real name. See “Leave a Reply” below to discuss on this post. Comments of a general nature may be submitted to the Letters page by emailing [email protected].